South by Southwest: Dateline Iraq

(photo by lowyota @ StockXCHNG)
U.S troops still fight in Iraq. And the region remains a very dangerous place. Iraq, for me will always be one of those on-the-one-hand/on-the-other-hand stories. For ambivalent citizens of both the United States and Iraq there are no easy answers. The war has become a political issue for both groups. And public opinion remains divided about terrorism and how to fight the war. Armed forces of both countries are stretched to the maximum. My post today is a mixture of bad news and good. It concludes with the good news that it can become easier to understand why things are the way they are in the region. Come to know Vali Nasr**.
Some Marines face "involuntary recall" says this story from Yahoo! News. And the recall for most will surely be involuntary. Many of them probably had no idea the bad news could come to this. To quote from the story,

The U.S. Marine Corps will start ordering what could be thousands of inactive service members to return to duty in the coming months to counter a steady decline in the number of such troops who volunteer, the service said on Tuesday.

Catch up on Iraq with this excellent Iraq status overview article from Yahoo! News. There may be room for a bit of cautions optimism about a drop in violence in Baghdad. Time will tell the full story. Quoting from the current piece,

Violence in Baghdad has declined in the past two weeks and all but ended in some formerly deadly neighborhoods, the U.S. military said in a cautiously upbeat report on Tuesday on a major security clampdown in the city.

An American public opinion poll, reported in the New York Times, reveals a positive change in people's attitudes about terrorism and the Middle East. After far too long, Americans are coming to believe what has been true all along about the war news. The Iraq war originally had nothing to do with terrorism. Now it does, of course, but only as a consequence of the U.S. invasion. Obviously it is good news that people are learning the truth; the bad news is that it took so long. To quote from the current article,

Americans increasingly see the war in Iraq as distinct from the fight against terrorism, and nearly half believe President Bush has focused too much on Iraq to the exclusion of other threats, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
The poll found that 51 percent of those surveyed saw no link between the war in Iraq and the broader antiterror effort, a jump of 10 percentage points since June. That increase comes despite the regular insistence of Mr. Bush and Congressional Republicans that the two are intertwined and should be seen as complementary elements of a strategy to prevent domestic terrorism.

Iraqi public opinion polls show an interesting mix of good-news/bad-news trends that are changing over time. The descent towards civil war may be sinking in on the Iraqis. They may realize that their nation's future cannot be assured if they remain so divided along sectarian lines. This news was reported in this fairly recent (8/17/06) article from US News and World Report.

The unrelenting violence and chaos of Iraq have taken their toll on the people there, according to a new study of Iraqi public opinion. The study, based on two surveys of over 2,300 Iraqis in 2004 and 2006, found increased feelings of powerlessness, insecurity, xenophobia, and pessimism, along with a striking level of distrust of U.S. intentions. At the same time, the surveys found a surprising rise in support for secular politics and nationalism, even as sectarian militias may be pulling the country toward all-out civil war. Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the project was done by Profs. Mansoor Moaddel of Eastern Michigan University and Ronald Inglehart and Mark Tessler of the University of Michigan. . .
One bright spot in the research: Iraqi attitudes appear to be veering away from support for a religious regime and toward support for secular politics and nationalism -- despite the lack of secular politicians and the growth of sectarian violence. Those agreeing it was "very good to have an Islamic government where religious leaders have absolute power" declined from 30 percent to 22 percent, with a major falloff in support from Sunnis (from 20 percent to 6 percent), who fear the majority Shiites will impose an Iran-like theocracy on Iraq. Even the Shiites showed a drop in support, to only about a third of those surveyed (from 39 percent to 34 percent).

Iran's power grows month by month. And the United States cannot continue forever to refuse to talk to that government. Aaccording to this story from Reuters,

Iran's standing in the Middle East has been bolstered by President George W Bush's "war on terror" and its power will continue to grow unless stability is restored to its neighbors, a top think tank said on Tuesday.
London's Royal Institute for International Affairs said wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel's conflict with the Palestinians and with Lebanon's Hizbollah had put Iran "in a position of considerable strength."
"There is little doubt that Iran has been the chief beneficiary of the war on terror in the Middle East," the RIIA said in a report on the region.

**Good Reference: Mid-east politics "101" - I recommend that you become acquainted with the outstanding work of Iranian-born, Dr. Vali Nasr, Naval Postgraduate School National Security Professor. The good news is that it is possible to come to a better understanding of these very complex issues. I have discovered someone who, for the first time for me, helped me to understand much more deeply what is behind the volatility in the region. Dr. Nasr's prominent family of origin escaped Iran (he was in high school), just before the fall of the Shah. His father was a professor and chief of staff for the Shah's wife. Here are some ways to learn more from this very rich info resource:

Council on Foreign Relations published a ground-breaking Nasr article, "When the Shiites Rise," published in July/August Foreign Affairs. Summary -

"By toppling Saddam Hussein, the Bush administration has liberated and empowered Iraq's Shiite majority and has helped launch a broad Shiite revival that will upset the sectarian balance in Iraq and the Middle East for years to come. This development is rattling some Sunni Arab governments, but for Washington, it could be a chance to build bridges with the region's Shiites, especially in Iran."

Nasr'sArticle (18 pg. pdf): "Regional Implications of Shia Revival in Iraq".
**C-SPAN VIDEO: "Washington Journal" 8/14/06 interview exploring the background and history of the Middle-east region. Dr. Nasr is probably the best expert I have ever heard on Islam, including the differences between Shia and Sunni.
Most recent publication: "The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future" (Hardcover) by Vali Nasr.
Dogpile search "ValiNasr".