South by Southwest: Political predictions

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Political predictions

This election map of 2000 is one I am trying to scrub from my mind. It makes me very anxious. I am hoping against hope that the "reds" will diminish this year, and that we will get some new national and state political leaders for 2007-08.

What will need to happen - is obvious. Local political organizations will need to recruit foot soldiers for the cause; as the cliche goes - all politics is local. Efforts need to continue in the battle for fair and documented electronic voting. The blogosphere needs to continue fund raising and issue clarification. The mainstream media will need to do their homework, questioning assertions of candidates, investigating claims, etc. And every voter needs to get to the polls, and maybe take someone who needs a ride. We will need a good turnout by Democrats and Independents for change to happen.

What will the MidTerm map of 2006 look like? I am cautiously optimistic, but prepared to be terribly disappointed. What are others thinking? Using Dogpile Search - with the term "political predictions," I found some interesting websites. They might be useful to you, too:

CountEveryVote's "Most Accurate Political Predictions On The 2006 Elections Resources"
Sabato's Crystal Ball -
A comprehensive Web site run by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball features analyses of presidential elections, Senate, House and gubernatorial races.
Joe Gandelman at The Moderate Voice -
See our post below. National Review Online has some political predictions HERE. They're not as much fun as the psychic ones but that's the way it goes. A few of the (more serious) ones we found interesting (all of these are copied verbatim and we're giving you the name of the person who predicted it):
Geraghty on Political Predictions -
Jim Geraghty discusses the game of poltical prognostication and the track record of Congressional Quarterly.
Mark Abramson's Political Predictions - (site includes a list of links to "other good sources")
The purpose of this page is to document my predictions for the outcome of United States elections, specifically for President, Senate, House of Representatives, and governorships. My predictions are based on a variety of sources, including polls, news sources, past election history, and gut instinct. I am an AMATEUR, and my goal is to out-predict the nonpartisan professional experts. Here are the rules:
1. I only do general elections, not primaries.
2. I make a prediction for every race, even if it is considered a complete toss-up.
3. To save space, only seats I predict will change parties are listed. All others
assume no change.
4. I reserve the right to change my predictions up until voting begins.
5. This is a HOBBY. I do not pay any money to subscribe to professional magazines, internet sites, etc.