South by Southwest: Foreign policy competition

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Foreign policy competition

The United States and Europe were more cooperative in foreign policy before the turn of the century. The election of George W. Bush and his subsequent invasion of Iraq has dramatically changed US/EU relations.

Multiple views within the EU - And there are often times when the European Union does not speak with a single foreign policy voice. A Q & A in DW-World asked a question about this of British foreign policy analyst, Hugo Brady. Here is a bit of that very interesting interview:

It's often been said that Europe's foreign policy has been bedeviled by policy divisions. The most spectacular differences were over the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2002-03. Does the EU's failure to speak with a single voice weaken its clout?

When the EU doesn't speak with one voice, it has great challenges to make countries -- like Russia, for instance -- take it seriously. In terms of power, the EU is not more than the sum of its parts, which is what it was supposed to do in terms of foreign policy. I think in trade, the EU is probably more than the sum of its parts. It is convincing to say that I speak for 450 million European consumers. But it is not convincing to say to the Russians I speak for 450 million European citizens and 27 governments. They don't believe that. Neither do the Americans.

NATO is divided over what to do in the war in Afghanistan. The United States has often complained that certain European countries are not shouldering their fair share of NATO's efforts to fight the terrorists in Afghanistan. The beggist complaints have centered upon failures to provide troops and failures of dealing with the Afghan drug economy. A Financial Times story about the recent meeting of Nato ministers was headlined, "Nato fails to agree on Afghan troops." To quote,

Nato ministers clashed over Afghanistan on Thursday when continental European governments refused to follow the US and the UK and send troops to battle the Taliban.
The alliance’s defence ministers gathered in southern Spain for a meeting Nato officials had earlier hoped would signal more troops for the fight against the Taliban in southern Afghanistan.
But, after months of pressure from Washington and London, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are refusing to send combat troops to the south and east, the centre of battle against the Taliban.
. . . But Germany, France, Italy and Spain argue that Washington is still placing too much emphasis on combat with the Taliban rather than reconstruction – in spite of a $10.6bn (€8.1bn, £5.4bn) US aid package announced last month.

US needs EU help against Iran. Thursday's S/SW post on the Middle East situation highlighted the divisions between The EU and US over economic sanctions against Iran. At a security summit in Munich, Germany's Chancellor Merkel is standing tough against Iran's nuclear program. The US is being represented by Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Russia's Vladimir Putin is also at the summit. Gates' trip to Europe will be the first real opportunity for Russian President Putin and the US defense secretary to take the measure of each other in person. The BBC News has the story, from which I quote:

Iran warned over nuclear demands
Iran says it wants nuclear power, not nuclear weapons
German chancellor Angela Merkel has told a global security forum that the international community is determined to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.
She said there was "no way around" the need for Tehran to accept demands from the UN and nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator is set to tell the Munich summit that Iran wants nuclear power, not nuclear weapons.
. . . Key figures present also include Russian President Vladimir Putin and new US Defence Secretary Robert Gates.
. . . Speaking after Mrs Merkel, Mr Putin criticised the United States for the "almost uncontained" use of force in the world, and for encouraging other countries to acquire nuclear weapons.
"We are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations," Mr Putin said.
"One state, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way ... This is very dangerous, nobody feels secure anymore because nobody can hide behind international law."

US missile defense - Look for the United States to deploy missiles in Eastern Europe, which will not signal a new arms race, according to the Russian Defense minister quoted in a Rueters article yesterday. It is difficult to see how this can be, given the rhetoric. It begins,

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov on Friday rejected U.S. arguments for deploying an anti-missile defense system in eastern Europe and insisted Russia would not be drawn into a Cold War-style arms race.
. . . "Any expert can prove the flight trajectory of the missile will be very far from the Czech Republic and Poland, so what is the real intention of these activities?," Ivanov said at a news conference after meeting NATO counterparts. . . . "We want to be absolutely sure that under no circumstances are we under any pressure, politically or militarily," Ivanov told journalists in the Spanish city of Seville, after meeting U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
. . . He said Russia would upgrade its own defense systems to make sure its strategic arsenal was not rendered ineffective.
. . . Earlier Gates said he had sought to reassure Ivanov that the system posed no threat to Moscow. "We've made quite clear to them that it's not directed at them," he told reporters.

The Numbers Game - At this point much of the world's foreign policy work regarding North Korea, Iran, and China is carried out by various coalitions of nations, of which the US is but a small part. For example, the US left it to the "Six-Party" talks to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat. And it is the "Quartet" that has been pushing for Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. Before the turn of the century the US was often the leader in foreign policy efforts. Far too often now, we are but bit-players.
References:

Just Foreign Policy.org - Board members include: Julian Bond, Robert Borosage, Tom Hayden, and several distinguished academics.
Just World News.org - by Helena Cobban
Modernization of Russian Missile Forces - Russia News & Info Services