Mid-east engulfed

Catching up with what is currently happening in the Middle East after the Thanksgving weekend is a big challenge. But it feels as if several situations in the region will soon be emerging as key to what is coming next. It could become much, much worse, or it will begin to get better.

Just in: NBC has, by the way, made an editorial decision to use the term "civil war" when referring to the Iraq conflict.

Jordan's King Abdullah has put it in a nutshell. Quoting from an AP story carried on MSNBC,

Jordan’s King Abdullah said Sunday the problems in the Middle East go beyond the war in Iraq and that much of the region soon could become engulfed in violence unless the central issues are addressed quickly.
“We could possibly imagine going into 2007 and having three civil wars on our hands,” he said, citing conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon and the decades-long strife between the Palestinians and Israelis.

Iraqi successes or failures at dealing with violence remain central to the future of the region. So many of us wish the U.S. had not invaded and occupied Iraq. But that is not the current reality. The U.S. election results in November sent a clear signal to all that things in Iraq will inevitably change - and from what? Associated Press reporter Sameer N. Yacoub writes in TBO.com News about the current situation with the government of Iraq. The key points of the article are these: Iraq's PM is calling upon the other leaders to settle their political differences. President Talibani is going to travel to Iran, who has promised to help. Quoting from the story,

Authorities lifted a three-day curfew in the capital and reopened the international airport Monday, clearing the way for President Jalal Talabani to make an official visit to Iran.
. . . Talabani had been scheduled to visit neighboring Iran on Saturday, but he had to postpone his trip because of the security clampdown imposed across Baghdad after Sunni insurgents killed more than 200 people in Sadr City on Thursday in the deadliest attack by militants since the war began in March 2003.
. . . Hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran is "ready to help" calm Iraq's fighting.
. . . In Baghdad on Sunday, Talabani, Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and Sunni Parliament speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani called for an end to Iraq's sectarian conflict and vowed to track down those responsible for the Sadr City attack. Al-Maliki is to meet with President Bush in neighboring Jordan on Wednesday and Thursday.

The big picture of Iraq includes these realities. An Iraqi TV station was seized by Sadr rebels this past weekend. Shiites threw rocks at Prime Minister Maliki when he visited Sadr City. Lifting the weekend curfew will probably increase the current level of violence. This week's Bush-Maliki meeting could not occur in Baghdad. OCP (our current president) may or may not ever agree to talks with any mid-eastern countries he deems "evil." ReliefWeb writer Paul Schemm (of Agence France-Presse) wrote a good summary yesterday about the situation outside of Baghdad. His key points include:

Residents of the Shiite slum of Sadr City pelted Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's motorcade with stones when he visited victims of Thursday's bombings that killed more than 200 people, sparking a three-day curfew.
. . . Maliki's erstwhile close ally, radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has threatened to withdraw from the government if Maliki has Wednesday's scheduled meeting with US President George W. Bush in Jordan.
. . . Meanwhile US and Iraqi forces carried out massive sweeps across the country, reporting they had killed or detained dozens of rebels, while Sunni tribes in the western province of Al-Anbar also fought Al-Qaeda militants.
. . . A marine and soldier were reported killed in Iraq, raising US military losses in Iraq to 2,873, according to an AFP count based on Pentagon figures.
. . . In northern Iraq, gunmen shot dead a woman working for Iraqiya television in Mosul -- the third media worker murdered there this month, police said.

In whose court is the ball? What OCP does next is anyone's guess. But whatever he does or fails to do will certainly make a difference in mid-east outcomes. The web site kerryfoxlive posted an excellent summary of the current situation with the U.S. government. The key points of this article include:

A draft report on strategies for Iraq, which will be debated here by a bipartisan commission beginning Monday, urges an aggressive regional diplomatic initiative that includes direct talks with Iran and Syria but sets no timetables for a military withdrawal, according to officials who have seen all or parts of the document.
. . . The draft report, according to those who have seen it, seems to link American withdrawal to the performance of the Iraqi military, as President Bush has done. But details of the performance benchmarks, which were described as not specific, could not be obtained, and it is this section of the report that is most likely to be revised.
. . . Meanwhile, Mr. Bush will be visiting Latvia and Estonia, then will head to Amman, Jordan, on Wednesday for two days of meetings with Mr. Maliki and King Abdullah II of Jordan.
. . . President Bush is not bound by the commission’s recommendations, and during a trip to Southeast Asia that ended just before Thanksgiving, he made it clear that he would also give considerable weight to studies under way by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his own National Security Council.
Last Monday in Bogor, Indonesia, he said he planned to make no decisions on troop increases or decreases “until I hear from a variety of sources, including our own United States military.”
. . . On Saturday, Vice President Dick Cheney flew to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with King Abdullah, whom he has known for 17 years.

The Bush administration military and diplomatic decisions made after 9/11/01 set the Middle East on the path of widespread wars for years thereafter. It need not have been that way. I hold no illusions that OCP will suddenly acquire wisdom right now. Pressure from Democrats, loudly expressed public opinion, Elders' leadership, Arabs stepping up to the challenge, good involvement by the United Nations, etc., etc., must all play their parts in the future of the region.

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