South by Southwest: Don't hold your breath about Iraq

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Don't hold your breath about Iraq

No matter what Republicans say, the facts remain on war in Iraq. To put it charitably, success following our invasion of Iraq remains a "work in progress." The Bush administration has made a concerted effort in recent days to capitalize on the killing of Al Queda in Iraq's leader, Zarkawi and the belated formation of a complete permanent government in Iraq. In my poinion the Republican effort is tied to the upcoming 2006 election and to the president's record low approval numbers in the polls.
Congresssional Republicans have made their own parallel political efforts at capitalizing on the changing situation in Iraq by passing a nonbinding resolution regarding the Iraq war. The debate was a sham and Democrats were put in a terrible no-win box with the Republican strategy. It was shameless. One of my favotites, Steve Clemons of The Washington Note, said it well. To quote,

June 14, 2006. Swagger is Back: Post-Zarqawi Iraq Creates Spin Opportunity for
Republicans -
Click here to read the "confidential messaging memo" from House Majority Leader John Boehner on all the good stuff that Republican Congressman should "tout" about America's progress in Iraq. I guess Texas swagger is back.
Boehner's memo amplifies a "high-fear" drumbeat for the so-called war on terror and suggests that the death of Zarqawi, the completion of appointing Iraq's senior cabinet ministers, and Bush's personal meeting with Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki seal the deal for America achieving victory in its efforts there.

Look at the facts - Our current president's surprise visit to the Green Zone last week to meet the new PM was cloaked in secrecy and extreme security measures, illustrating how incredibly insecure the city of Baghdad is. The visit has been covered extensively in all the mainstream media and by bloggers, so there is no need to repeat that information. Building a secure Iraq may or may not ever happen. Soon after the most controversial posts in the al-Maliki government were filled, the Iraqi PM launced a major effort at establishing a more secure Baghdad, according to Aljazeera. But the violence continues unabated. To quote,

Friday's violence came despite a clampdown in the capital ordered by prime minister Nuri al-Maliki since Wednesday that saw vehicles banned from the capital's streets during prayer times, and a large number of Iraqi and US soldiers out on patrol.
The crackdown, dubbed Operation Forward Together, is one of the largest since the US-led invasion of 2003 and is directed at exploiting any power vacuum in anti-US and US backed Iraqi government fighters' ranks after the death of Iraq al-Qaeda frontman Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a US air raid last week.

Iraqis are still dying by the dozens and we are losing American soldiers, the BBC reports. This story in Aljazeera discusses the fact that the US death toll has reached 2500:

The number of US military deaths in Iraq has reached 2,500, the Pentagon said on Thursday, and the military warned it expected the new leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq to continue the bloody tactics of his predecessor.
In Washington, the Pentagon said 18,490 US troops had been wounded in the war, which began in March 2003. On an average day, about two US military personnel are killed.
Tens of thousands of Iraqis have also been killed since the US-led invasion more than three years ago to overthrow Saddam Hussein, igniting an uprising by his
once-dominant Sunni Arab minority that is showing little sign of easing.

The prospect of a US troop drawdown seems remote at this point - The USA Today has a related story on how many Iraqis are being killed by insurgents in spite of "Operation Forward Together." To quote USA,

Insurgents foiled heightened security in Baghdad and killed more than two dozen people Saturday after an al-Qaeda threat to avenge the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, dealing a blow to the Iraqi government's pledge to bring peace to the capital. Eleven more Iraqis, including four in Baghdad, died in shooting attacks across Iraq.
U.S. troops, meanwhile, combed through the "Triangle of Death," a predominantly Sunni Arab region south of the capital looking for two soldiers missing since an attack Friday on a traffic checkpoint that also killed one of their comrades.

One more time, "Trust me" - Our current president seems to be putting his presidency on the line with the new Iraq administration. This year's elections are also probably tied to the war in Iraq. The Washington Post writer Michael Abramowitz summarizes it all very well in the last two paragraphs of his story, from which I quote,

Larry Diamond, who worked briefly for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq only to become a sharp critic of U.S. efforts, said Maliki appears to be a more realistic and politically savvy leader than his predecessors. But Diamond warned that the administration needs to capitalize quickly on recent good news, especially the death of insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, while not smothering Maliki in an embrace that makes it appear he is a U.S. puppet.
"There are not too many bullets left in our strategic arsenal," Diamond said. "If things were to turn direction again and head south [in Iraq], I don't know what would be left to turn things around."